Real Madrid – Atletico Madrid

The Madrid derby won’t end with a victory for the favorite.

With ten rounds left in the season in the Spanish La Liga, a fairly familiar standings picture has formed. In the race for the championship there are only Barcelona and Real Madrid, separated by four points. The leaders are the Catalans, who benefited from two consecutive defeats of the royal club in the February–March window of the current year. In this competition, the blue-grana are looking like deserved favorites for now. Barcelona is much more stable than their eternal rival, and also has fewer injury problems. On Sunday Real Madrid face a test that could prove decisive in the title race. At the Santiago Bernabeu, the club's second-most bitter rival Atletico Madrid will come. In the current season the Madrid derby has already taken place twice. In the first, Diego Simeone's team, in La Liga on their home ground, crushed the Blancos 5-2. At the start of 2026, fate brought the Madrid clubs together in Saudi Arabia for the penultimate meeting led by Xabi Alonso at the head of the Galacticos. Then Real Madrid barely overcame Atletico and headed into a disastrous final of the Spanish Super Cup. Bookmakers have named the home side as favorites for the upcoming match, offering odds of 1.94 on their victory. The peak of the latest on-field crisis the Arbeloa-led team endured came in early March. After a loss to Getafe, the Blancos traveled to Vigo, barely fielding eleven starting players due to a glut of injuries and suspensions. Seizing a win over Celta in stoppage time of the second half, Arbeloa's men seemed to have overcome the most crucial moment. After that, Valverde and company won two Champions League matches against Manchester City and, at home in La Liga, crushed Elche. Undoubtedly, this is a reason for the Blancos to feel good, but there are reasons for concern in Atlético's camp as well. Diego Simeone's side recently booked a place in the Copa del Rey final against Barcelona, and also easily overcame Tottenham in the Round of 16 of the Champions League. The opponents know each other as well as possible, so betting on a double-outcome with higher odds seems the best choice.